Philip Tetlock

According to our database, Philip Tetlock authored at least 14 papers between 2012 and 2024.

Collaborative distances:

• Dijkstra number of five.
• Erdős number of four.

2024

ForecastBench: A Dynamic Benchmark of AI Forecasting Capabilities.

Ezra Karger, Houtan Bastani, Chen Yueh-Han, Zachary Jacobs, Danny Halawi, Fred Zhang, Philip E. Tetlock

CoRR, 2024

Wisdom of the Silicon Crowd: LLM Ensemble Prediction Capabilities Rival Human Crowd Accuracy.

Philipp Schoenegger, Indre Tuminauskaite, Peter S. Park, Philip E. Tetlock

CoRR, 2024

AI-Augmented Predictions: LLM Assistants Improve Human Forecasting Accuracy.

Philipp Schoenegger, Peter S. Park, Ezra Karger, Philip E. Tetlock

CoRR, 2024

Full Accuracy Scoring Accelerates the Discovery of Skilled Forecasters.

Pavel Atanasov, Ezra Karger, Philip Tetlock

Proceedings of the 25th ACM Conference on Economics and Computation, 2024

2022

Crowd Prediction Systems: Markets, Polls, and Elite Forecasters.

Pavel Atanasov, Jens Witkowski, Barbara A. Mellers, Philip Tetlock

Proceedings of the EC '22: The 23rd ACM Conference on Economics and Computation, Boulder, CO, USA, July 11, 2022

2021

Bias, Information, Noise: The BIN Model of Forecasting.

Ville A. Satopää, Marat Salikhov, Philip E. Tetlock, Barbara A. Mellers

Manag. Sci., 2021

2020

Small Steps to Accuracy: Incremental Belief Updaters Are Better Forecasters.

Pavel Atanasov, Jens Witkowski, Lyle H. Ungar, Barbara A. Mellers, Philip Tetlock

Proceedings of the EC '20: The 21st ACM Conference on Economics and Computation, 2020

2017

Confidence Calibration in a Multiyear Geopolitical Forecasting Competition.

Don A. Moore, Samuel A. Swift, Angela Minster, Barbara A. Mellers, Lyle H. Ungar, Philip Tetlock, Heather H. J. Yang, Elizabeth R. Tenney

Manag. Sci., 2017

Distilling the Wisdom of Crowds: Prediction Markets vs. Prediction Polls.

Pavel Atanasov, Phillip Rescober, Eric Stone, Samuel A. Swift, Emile Servan-Schreiber, Philip Tetlock, Lyle H. Ungar, Barbara A. Mellers

Manag. Sci., 2017

Assessing Objective Recommendation Quality through Political Forecasting.

H. Andrew Schwartz, Masoud Rouhizadeh, Michael Bishop, Philip Tetlock, Barbara A. Mellers, Lyle H. Ungar

Proceedings of the 2017 Conference on Empirical Methods in Natural Language Processing, 2017

2016

Validating the Contribution-Weighted Model: Robustness and Cost-Benefit Analyses.

Eva Chen, David V. Budescu, Shrinidhi K. Lakshmikanth, Barbara A. Mellers, Philip E. Tetlock

Decis. Anal., 2016

2014

Two Reasons to Make Aggregated Probability Forecasts More Extreme.

Jonathan Baron, Barbara A. Mellers, Philip E. Tetlock, Eric Stone, Lyle H. Ungar

Decis. Anal., 2014

2013

The Marketcast Method for Aggregating Prediction Market Forecasts.

Pavel Atanasov, Phillip Rescober, Eric Stone, Emile Servan-Schreiber, Barbara A. Mellers, Philip Tetlock, Lyle H. Ungar

Proceedings of the Social Computing, Behavioral-Cultural Modeling and Prediction, 2013

2012

The Good Judgment Project: A Large Scale Test of Different Methods of Combining Expert Predictions.

Lyle H. Ungar, Barbara A. Mellers, Ville Satopää, Philip Tetlock, Jon Baron

Proceedings of the Machine Aggregation of Human Judgment, 2012